Light Duty Electric Vehicle Forecast: 74,000+ by 2024

Electric Vehicle Forecast


A new research report estimates that Canada will have between 74,000 and 91,000 light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) on the road by 2024. In the U.S., between 860,000 and 1.2 million.

According to the Navigant Research report, Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts, North America is the strongest market so far for light duty (LD) plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), with more than 133,000 sold in 2014. The report provides plug-in electric vehicle sales forecasts for North America by state/province, metropolitan area, city, and selected utility service territory.

Currently, PEV sales are concentrated in California, where the vehicles already account for over 3% of the state’s total LD vehicle market. State incentives,alongside the mandates of the California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program, will likely continue to push PEV penetrations in the state to between 15% and 22% by 2024. Other ZEV Program participating states are expected to see similar growth. Outside of the ZEV states, PEV sales will grow most quickly in jurisdictions with large vehicle markets, high PEV incentives, well-developed infrastructure, and a high PEV index.

This Navigant Research report provides data and forecasts for LD PEV sales in North America, including U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and utility service territories and Canadian provinces and cities. The study estimates the number of vehicles that will be in use in specific geographic locations and assesses the potential impacts of anticipated PEV penetration in the most active PEV markets. Market forecasts for LD PEV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario and geographic area, extend through 2024. The study also provides analysis of Navigant Research’s EV Consumer Survey, which was used to develop the PEV demographic profile.

Key questions addressed:

• Which states, provinces, and cities in North America are most likely to have the largest penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)?

• Which metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and cities have demographic profiles that match the typical PEV owner demographics in the U.S. and Canada?

• What is the projected size of the North American PEV market over the next 10 years and where will sales grow the fastest?

• How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for in the future?

• What are the vehicle style preferences of PEV prospects?

• What are the anticipated vehicle purchase costs of PEV prospects?

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