Electricity Demand in Ontario to Grow by 75 per cent by 2050

October 21, 2024

According to a new annual forecast from the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), electricity demand in Ontario is anticipated to grow 75 per cent by 2050, higher than previously forecast, with annual consumption rising from 151 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to 263 TWh in 2050.

The accelerated pace of demand growth in this year’s forecast is primarily attributed to the industrial sector, which includes additional electric vehicle supply chain manufacturing; and energy-intensive data centres, a trend that is quickly emerging around the world to support the proliferation of artificial intelligence. An increasing population and focus on electrification are other factors continuing to escalate electricity demand across the province.

“The rising growth forecast is a positive reflection of Ontario’s reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity grid, which continues to attract new investment in our province,” said Lesley Gallinger, President and CEO, the IESO. “Through our robust procurement process, we have secured supply to meet Ontario’s needs through the end of this decade. With growing demand, our focus is on accelerating the pace of new electricity infrastructure development across the province so that we can support the province’s continued growth into the 2030s.”

By regularly forecasting future electricity needs, the IESO informs electricity investment decisions and sets the context for resource procurements. A procurement for new electricity generation and storage resources is currently being finalized, with targets and timelines that will reflect faster demand growth. All forms of electricity supply will compete, securing the best price for Ontarians.

“Ontario needs to generate more power, and our government has the plan to build out affordable, reliable and clean energy for our families and future generations,” said the Hon. Stephen Lecce, Minister of Energy and Electrification. “Above all, we must act with speed and urgency to ensure we think long-term and build for the future while avoiding short-sighted ideological policies that almost always lead to higher energy bills. Our vision is well underway as we lead the largest nuclear expansion on the continent on time and on budget. However, we must and will do more to decisively meet emerging supply gaps. In the days ahead, we will build upon our plan by significantly expanding energy generation, conservation and storage to keep the lights on and energy bills down for Ontario families.”

The demand forecast is the cornerstone of the IESO’s Annual Planning Outlook. The Outlook includes updated projected electricity demand, resource adequacy assessments, transmission considerations, and identifies the province’s energy and capacity needs. The next Annual Planning Outlook is scheduled for release in Q1 2025. The new demand forecast is being released early to support ongoing engagement with stakeholders and communities.

Quick Facts:

• Energy efficiency is a critical resource when considering options to meet growing needs: it is the cleanest and lowest cost resource, offering customers the tools they need to save money on their bills. Thanks to energy efficiency programs, provincial energy demand is 15 per cent lower today than it otherwise would be.
• Data centers represent 13% of new electricity demand and 4% of total anticipated Ontario demand in 2035. A recent Electric Power Research Institute report forecasts that data centres could make up to 9% of demand in the United States by 2030.
• Industrial demand is forecast to grow 23 TWh or 58% by 2035 as new electric vehicle and supply chain facilities are constructed, almost equivalent to adding a city the size of Toronto to the grid.
• Ontario’s households are expected to grow 15% by 2035, or one million more homes, which accounts for 6 TWh or 9% of new electricity demand.
• Electric vehicle adoption is expected to significantly reduce economy-wide emissions, and represents the largest driver of increased electricity demand, with 20 TWh or 31% of new demand by 2035.
• Since May 2023, the IESO added more than 3,600 MW of new capacity to Ontario’s grid, which puts Ontario’s electricity system in a strong reliability position through the rest of this decade. New supply is now needed for the 2030s and on.

Source